Deloitte’s $1.71 Trillion Holiday Forecast Raises the Stakes for TV and Digital Retailers

Deloitte projects U.S. holiday retail sales will reach $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion during the November 2026 through January 2027 period, giving jewelry sellers, television shopping networks and direct-response marketers a growing but promotion-sensitive demand backdrop. The forecast represents a 4% to 4.8% increase from the same three-month period a year earlier. (rapaport.com)

The projection is not a report of completed consumer spending. Deloitte issued the forecast on September 10, and Rapaport reported it on September 15. For comparison, Deloitte said seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding automotive and gasoline grew 4.1% to $1.63 trillion from November 2025 through January 2026, based on U.S. Census Bureau figures. (deloitte.com)

Deloitte expects online sales to outpace the broader market, rising 7.5% to 8.4% and reaching between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion. The firm attributed that trajectory partly to consumers’ continued use of digital tools, promotions and comparison shopping throughout the purchase process. Previous-season e-commerce sales grew 7.5% to an estimated $294 billion, excluding gasoline stations, motor-vehicle and parts dealers, and food services. (deloitte.com)

Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, said disposable personal income remains an important input in the forecast. Deloitte projects that measure will increase 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, supporting retail and e-commerce sales. Barua also said consumers’ use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases should assist online growth. (deloitte.com)

Natalie Martini, Deloitte vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, said shoppers still want to make the holidays special but are making deliberate spending decisions. Deloitte expects value-seeking across income groups—including switching retailers or brands and using promotions—to shape buying behavior. (rapaport.com)

ConsumerEXP analysis: For home-shopping programmers and jewelry vendors, the competitive fault line is therefore not simply whether holiday demand expands. It is whether televised demonstrations, live presentations and direct-response offers can establish sufficient product distinction and promotional value while shoppers simultaneously compare prices online. The forecast does not provide category-specific jewelry sales, television conversion rates, airtime economics or measured sales attributable to TV, streaming, QR codes or telephone orders.